Try that in a small town!
Crime in Saskatchewan
Sucker punch somebody on a sidewalk
Carjack an old lady at a red light
Pull a gun on the owner of a liquor store
Ya think it's cool, well, act a fool if ya like.
So begins the controversial song from Jason Aldean. He goes on to sing:
Well, try that in a small town
See how far ya make it down the road.
Crime, Aldean claims, is nipped in the bud by the old-fashioned, red-neck, good-old-boys who don’t tolerate unseemly behavior. The song has been attacked as a celebration of vigilantism – and the times being what they are – a claim that it celebrates white supremacy.
The controversy is stupid, but so is the song.
At the most basic level, most of the small-town crime is committed by the old-fashioned, red-neck, good-old-boys who Aldean portrays as crime-fighting superheroes. Most “good-old-boys” are young men – and young men commit most of the crime in both big cities and small towns.
So, the song is stupid.
But it speaks to an ancient prejudice:
Big cities are dens of iniquity and sin.
Small towns and rural areas are the repository of virtue and clean living.
But is this prejudice against big cities true? Let us look at crime in Saskatchewan, which is Canada’s most rural province. Lots of small towns here, but not many cities and no real big cities. By Aldean’s standards, Saskatchewan “cities” such as Prince Albert and Swift Current would be small towns.
So let’s look at officially reported and counted crime in Saskatchewan.
Statistics Canada produces a very useful measure called the Crime Severity Index (CSI). This is a better measure than the “crime rate” (which counts the total number of crimes per capita) because it recognizes that all crimes are not the same. Murder is more serious than shoplifting. When the CSI is calculated, each reported crime is assigned a weighting. The total weighted score is then adjusted for population. The measure is not perfect, but it is pretty good at allowing us to compare the comparative seriousness of crime in different jurisdictions and over time.
The graph below shows the CSI for Saskatchewan as a whole, Saskatoon, and Regina in the 21st century. In 2000, the two cities had more crime per capita than the province as a whole. This meant Aldean’s sentiment was directionally correct. Small towns (and rural areas) had less crime than the “big” cities.”
But over the past two decades, this has changed. From 2000 to 2012, the CSI dropped across Saskatchewan - big city, small town and rural - but at a faster rate in Saskatoon and Regina than in the province as a whole. Since then, the CSI in Saskatchewan as a whole had gone up – but it been fairly stable in Saskatoon and Regina. Saskatchewan’s overall CSI is now 34.3 percent higher than Saskatoon’s and 42.6 percent higher than Regina’s. This means there is a lot of people “trying that” in small towns. Crime in Saskatchewan’s small towns and rural areas has gone up while it has gone down in the two cities.
The same trends hold true for violent crime alone.
In 2000, Regina’s Violent CSI was 16 percent higher than the Saskatchewan as a whole. Saskatoon’s was 21.5 percent higher.
In 2022, Regina’s Violent CSA was 58.1 percent LOWER than Saskatchewan as a whole. Saskatoon’s was 43.4 percent lower.
Try violent crime in a small town? In Saskatchewan, more and more people have been.
Let us break this down to specific offences.
We will start with Homicide.
That table below shows the total number of homicides reported in Saskatoon, Regina, and the rest of Saskatchewan combined. In 2000, there were 26 homicides in Saskatchewan. 46.5 percent of them were committed outside of our two major cities. In 2022, there were 71 homicides in Saskatchewan – an increase of 173.1 percent. Of these, 66.2 percent were committed outside of the two major cities.
Homicide – try that in a small town. More and more people are.
Let us look at assault. The table below shows the number of Level 2 and 3 Assaults reported in Saskatchewan. These are the more serious assaults – ones where there is serious bodily injury or where a weapon is used.
Beating someone up? Try that in a small town. More and more people are.
Now let’s turn to property crime. We have a measurement problem here, since many (most?) thefts are not reported to police. Many people believe that calling the police is pointless. The thief will not be caught, and you will not get your stuff back. A lot of property crime statistics are notoriously unreliable as a result.
The one exception is motor vehicle theft. Automobiles cost a lot of money. They must be insured. Insurance companies will not pay out a claim unless a police report has been filed. So, people report the theft of their car or truck. Criminologists treat motor vehicle thefts as the most reliable indicator of trends in the overall level of property crime. The graph below shows the number of motor vehicle thefts in Saskatoon, Regina, and the rest of the province for 2000 and 2022.
During the 1990s, Regina (along with Winnipeg) was known as the car theft capital of Canada. It was really bad. One day the Minister of Justice was scheduled to hold a press conference announcing a plan to fight motor vehicle thefts in Regina. He was late getting there. His car had been stolen.
But the plan worked. The number of cars being stolen in Regina plummeted. The opposite was happening in small town Saskatchewan.
Stealing a car? Try that in a small town. You’ll have lots of company.
The bottom line:
In Saskatchewan, the sentiment in Jason Aldean’s song is flat-out wrong. Our rural areas and some of our small towns have more crime than do the big, putatively evil, cities. What is more, the crime gap is widening. Our major cities are getting safer while our small towns are letting more violent and crime ridden.
For books by Mark Stobbe on Crime and Punishment:
https://www.routledge.com/No-Body-Homicides-The-Evolution-of-Investigation-and-Prosecution/Stobbe/p/book/9781032440705
https://ecwpress.com/products/the-mr-big-sting