The Best and Worst Provinces for Criminals
"Go west, young crook, go west!"
What is the best province in which to pursue a life of crime? Where can an aspiring criminal do the least time for their crimes?
In my last post, I looked classical criminological deterrence theory and how it applies in Canada to selected property crimes. According to this theory, the deterrence effect of the criminal justice system is a function of the certainty of punishment, the speed of punishment and the severity of punishment. By looking at the number of crimes reported to police in 2019 and the output of the court system in 2020/2021 (our criminal justice fails on the “speed” part of the equation), we saw that:
Each reported robbery resulted in 22.41 days of jail time;
Each reported motor vehicle theft resulted in 0.25 days of jail time;
Each reported break and enter resulted in 3.47 days of jail time; and
Each reported fraud resulted in 0.93 days of jail time.
Canada does not really ensure that crime does not pay. However, while Canada operates under a single, national criminal code, the administration of the justice system is a provincial responsibility. The direction provincial governments give to prosecutors and the efficiency with which provinces operate the courts varies.
In this post, we will look at the four benchmark property crimes of robbery, motor vehicle theft, break and entering and fraud to see what provinces are the best and worst to be a criminal. In this exercise, we had to leave Prince Edward Island and Manitoba out of the mix. Statistics Canada does not report sentencing data for all offences in Prince Edward Island because the small size of that province does not result in enough cases for statistical analysis. Manitoba generates lots of criminal cases, but does not report on sentencing data because of inadequate computer systems. In a footnote to their data tables, Statistics Canada expresses hope that the Manitoba Department of Justice will join the 21st century…sometime. Here is the toughest and softest from the eight remaining provinces.
Robbery:
If you want to buy a gun or knife and start robbing people, my advice is to stay away from New Brunswick. The average sentence for robbery in that province was 963 days compared with the Canadian average of 481. What is more, 19.64 percent of robberies in New Brunswick resulted in a jail sentence, compared with a national average of 4.66 percent. Put these things together means that 189.16 days of jail time per robbery were meted out in New Brunswick.
Wannabe robbers from New Brunswick should follow the old advice of Horace Greeley: “Go west, young man, go west.” In British Columbia, the average sentence for robbery was 326 days and only 3.24 percent of reported robberies result in someone going to jail. Each reported robbery in British Columbia resulted in 10.24 days of incarceration.
There were 21.62 reported robberies per 100,000 people in New Brunswick in 2019 compared with 56.21 in British Columbia.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Saskatchewan was the worst province in which to be a car thief, but it was still not too onerous. Each car theft in Saskatchewan in 2019 generated 0.84 days of incarceration. Saskatchewan had both the longest average sentence (91 days) and the most vehicle thefts resulting in jail time (0.92 percent).
British Columbia was the best place to be a car thief. Each vehicle theft resulted in 0.14 days of jail time. British Columbia had an average sentence of 61 days (lower than the national average of 70 days but longer than Ontario’s 45 days), but only 0.22 percent of reported vehicle thefts resulted in anyone being sentenced to jail.
British Columbia had 262.15 reported vehicle thefts per 100,000 people in 2019, compared with 452.29 in Saskatchewan. The national rate was 231.5 per 100,000 people.
Break and Enter
Saskatchewan was also the worst province to be a burglar, with each reported B&E resulting in 8.46 days of incarceration. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Quebec all had longer average sentences, but Saskatchewan caught and punished a much higher percentage of burglars – even if only 3.08 percent of break and enters resulted in a jail sentence.
If you have been paying attention so far, you should be able to guess which province was the best place to be a burglar. That is right, British Columbia. Each reported break and enter resulted in 1.40 days of incarceration. The province had both the lowest average sentence and the lowest percentage of cases resulting in jail time.
Saskatchewan had 848.29 reported break and enters per 100,000 population compared with 560.98 in British Columbia. The national rate was 426.78 per 100,000 population.
Fraud
Quebec was the worst province to commit fraud. In that province, each reported act of fraud in 2019 generated 3.71 days of jail time. This was a function of both longer average sentences and a higher percentage of frauds resulting in jail time.
British Columbia was the best place to be a fraudster. In 2019, each reported fraud generated 0.24 days of jail time.
Quebec had 218.8 reported frauds per 100,000 population while British Columbia had 442.35. The national rate was 377.68.
Does “getting tough” deter crime?
I have thrown a lot of numbers at you in this article. There are a few takeaways:
The best place to be a criminal is British Columbia. In each the four “for gain” crimes we looked at, the justice system in British Columbia produced the least jail per reported criminal act. Go west, young crook, go west. I hear they will even give you free drugs if you are an addict.
There was no clear correlation between the “toughness” or “softness” of the deterrence and the reported crime rate. For each of these crimes, the “softest” province, British Columbia, has a crime rate that is higher than the national average. New Brunswick and Quebec are “toughest” on robbery and fraud respectively, and have very low rates for these offences. On the other hand, Saskatchewan was toughest on motor vehicle theft and B&E’s, but had high rates for each of these crimes – higher than British Columbia. This raises the possibility that “toughness” can come in response to high crime rates created by other economic and social factors.
Criminological theory argues that effective deterrence rests on certainty of punishment, severity of punishment, and speed of punishment. Deterrence is a three-legged stool. There is not a lot of certainty of punishment in our criminal justice system – most crimes remain unpunished. Our justice system is also very slow and getting slower. With the exception of Prince Edward Island, which has a scale advantage, Saskatchewan’s justice system is far and away the fastest at getting accused their day in court.
A Manitoba/Saskatchewan Comparison:
Manitoba was excluded from most of these comparisons because the government in that province is too incompetent to provide the full range of data to Statistics Canada. However, if it was as competent at counting as other provinces, it would likely have been rated as “tough” or “tougher” than Saskatchewan for offences such as motor vehicle theft and burglary. The two provinces have comparable (high) crime rates and incarceration rates. However, there is one huge difference between the provinces. Saskatchewan’s justice system is a lot more efficient at getting decisions. The median time for a person to get their day in court for the offences we looked at were, in 2020/21:
Robbery
Saskatchewan – 200 days
Manitoba – 348 days
Motor Vehicle Theft
Saskatchewan – 100 days
Manitoba – 305 days
Breaking and Entering
Saskatchewan – 171 days
Manitoba – 264 days
Fraud
Saskatchewan – 134 days
Manitoba – 235 days
This difference in justice system efficiency and competence shows up in the nature of incarceration in the two provinces. In Manitoba, for every convicted inmate serving their sentence, there are two (legally innocent) accused locked up while waiting for their day in court. In Saskatchewan, the ratio between convicted and remand custody is about 50/50. This is still not great, but it is the best in Canada and a heck of a lot better than in Manitoba.