Disgust vs. Fear

The joyless 2025 election campaign

Not so long ago, pollsters asserted that the Conservatives were cruising to a record landslide majority, that the Liberals were facing the abyss of non-existence as a party in the next Parliament, and that the NDP was holding steady despite imitating a toothless lapdog sitting on its master’s lap while periodically barking to convince itself of its ferocity.

Then the Liberals pulled a leadership switcheroo and Donald Trump decided Canada was an enemy to the United States.

Suddenly, the pollsters were reporting the Liberals were on their way to re-election. The Conservatives were reported to be on track to their muddling disappointments of 2019 and 2021. The NDP was now reported to be the ones facing extinction.

This week, some pollsters were reporting signs of a Conservative recovery. Others were not.

What in the name of George Gallop is going on?

Here’s my theory.

We are in a special kind of election that has two pre-conditions.

The first is that the incumbent governing party has worn outs welcome with many of the people who voted to put it into power. Governing means choosing. Choosing means disappointing. If the inevitable generation of disappointment is accompanied by arrogance, incompetence, corruption, or too much hypocrisy - disappointment turns into disgust. Throw the bums out. This is not what we voted for.

The second precondition is that these voters have serious misgivings about the party generally accepted as the alternative to the governing party. After all, the disgusted former supporters of the governing party had reasons not to vote for the other guys. Underlying policy differences can be accentuated by suspicions that the main opposition party is scary, underhanded, duplicitous, or just plain different.

What are these poor disgusted voters to do? They have come to despise the guys they put into office. They fear the alternative.

One solution is not vote at all, but people who have always voted will rarely tell pollsters they will not (and they usually to show up at the polls on election day).

What to do? What to do? Disgust versus fear. What to do?

In the pre-election period, these voters can resolve their angst by “parking” their vote with the opposition party. It’s a phrase often used, but is misleading since people can only vote once in an election cycle. You can’t actually change electoral parking spots whenever the time on the meter expires.

In disgust vs. fear elections, a significant block of voters goes into the campaign desperately searching for a way to resolve their angst. They are disgusted by the thought of voting for the governing party. Even if they have been telling pollsters (and themselves) about intentions to vote for the main opposition party, there is no joy in it. They are still afraid of the opposition party and are searching for something else. After all, a parking spot is different than a home.

The angst of these voters makes disgust vs. fear campaigns very volatile.

The Third-Party Scenario

Sometimes a hitherto unconsidered third party catches their attention. This is often triggered by a televised leader’s debate. The leader of a third party appears reasonable. At the very least, they evoke neither disgust nor fear.

“Hah!” says the poor conflicted voter. “Someone I can vote for!”

Thus comes, out of nowhere, a third-party wave. Or at least a surprising wavelet. Here are some examples:

• W.A.C. Bennett’s Social Credit Party winning a minority in British Columbia in 1952.

• Ray Martin’s NDP going from two seats to 16 seats in Alberta in 1983.

• Shirley Carstairs’ Liberals going from 1 seat to 20 seats in Manitoba in 1988.

• Bob Rae’s NDP going from 19 seats to 74 seats in Ontario in 1990.

• Lynda Haverstock’s Liberals going from 54,739 votes in 1986 (under Ralph Goodale) to 125,814 votes in 1991. This surge did not immediately translate into a lot of seats, but it sure caught people’s attention.

• Gordon Wilson’s Liberals going from no seats to 17 seats in British Columbia in 1991.

• Jack Layton’s NDP going from 36 seats to 103 seats in 2011. The really big “unexpected third party” effect was the “Orange Crush” in Quebec where the NDP won 59 seats. To put this in perspective, prior to this, only two NDP candidates had ever been elected in that province – in the entire history of the NDP.

These are the examples of the unexpected surge by a previously irrelevant third party that come to my mind. Sometimes these parties had staying power. Mostly they didn’t.

Will this happen in 2025?

It’s unlikely.

Jagmeet Singh’s NDP lacks the “unknown” quality needed here. People know them as Justin Trudeau’s toothless, hypocritical lapdogs. Some disgusted Liberals “parked their vote” with the NDP in the pre-election period, but are now moving on … because of the second scenario.

The Governing Party pulls a Leadership Switcheroo

Ahh. The last minute, desperate leadership change. Putting a new coat of paint on the old jalopy and pretending it is a new car.

Sometimes this works. Think of Kathleen Wynne in Ontario in 2013. Or Pierre Trudeau in 1968.

Often it does not. Think of Kim Campbell and John Turner in federal elections. Or Alberta’s Jim Prentice. Does anyone remember British Columbia’s Rita Johnston? Anyone?

In these elections, the task of the incumbent party is to convince its disgusted former supporters that it has changed – that the sins of arrogance, incompetence, corruption, and hypocrisy have been put on the Viking funeral ship with the old leader and burned. At the same time, the incumbents have to ramp up the fear factor for the opposition.

Meanwhile, the task of the main opposition party is to convince the block of disgusted former supporters of the old regime that the nothing has changed. In the words of the British rock band, The Who, “Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss. Don’t be fooled again.” At the same time, the challenging party has to convince these people they are not as scary as thought.

What’s going to happen on April 28?

I have no idea.

That’s not quite true.

I’m pretty sure the third-party surge alternative won’t happen. The NDP and the Greens (do the Green’s still exist?) have forfeited their opportunity to play this role.

This narrows the question.

Will disgust triumph over fear? Or will fear triumph over disgust?

One thing is for certain. This produces a peculiarly joyless election. There’s not a lot of hope and optimism in this thing.